Julien Arino

Somewhere on campus

University of Manitoba

Winnipeg, Manitoba

I am a Professor with the Department of Mathematics at the University of Manitoba.

My research is in mathematical biology, with particular focus on the role of movement in epidemiology and epizootiology. As part of my work, I have become more and more interested in data scientific aspects.

I teach mathematical modelling and mathematical epidemiology in a variety of settings and have recorded some lectures in that context, which I post to my YouTube channel.

selected publications

Transmission of multiple pathogens across species

Clotilde Djuikem, and Julien Arino

arXiv preprint arXiv:2405.20264, 2024

Abstract DOI PDF

We analyse a model that describes the propagation of many pathogens within and between many species. A branching process approximation is used to compute the probability of disease outbreaks. Special cases of aquatic environments with two host species and one or two pathogens are considered both analytically and computationally.
Effect of mobility on the stochastic phase of an epidemic

Julien Arino, and Evan M. Milliken

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 2022

Abstract DOI PDF

The early phase of an epidemic is characterized by a small number of infected individuals, implying that stochastic effects drive the dynamics of the disease. Mathematically, we define the stochastic phase as the time during which the number of infected individuals remains small and positive. A continuous-time Markov chain model of a simple two-patch epidemic is presented. An algorithm for formalizing what is meant by small is presented, and the effect of movement on the duration of the early stochastic phase of an epidemic is studied.
Risk of COVID-19 variant importation - How useful are travel control measures?

Julien Arino, Pierre-Yves Boelle, Evan M Milliken, and 1 more author

Infectious Disease Modelling, 2021

Abstract DOI PDF

We consider models for the importation of a new variant COVID-19 strain in a location already seeing propagation of a resident variant. By distinguishing contaminations generated by imported cases from those originating in the community, we are able to evaluate the contribution of importations to the dynamics of the disease in a community. We find that after an initial seeding, the role of importations becomes marginal compared to that of community-based propagation. We also evaluate the role of two travel control measures, quarantine and travel interruptions. We conclude that quarantine is an efficacious way of lowering importation rates, while travel interruptions have the potential to delay the consequences of importations but need to be applied within a very tight time window following the initial emergence of the variant.
Mathematical epidemiology in a data-rich world

J. Arino

Infectious Disease Modelling, 2020

Abstract DOI PDF Code

I discuss the acquisition and use of “background” data in mathematical epidemiology models, advocating a proactive approach to the incorporation of said data. I illustrate various mechanisms for acquiring data, mainly from open data sources. I also discuss incorporating this data into models.